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Active Products
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★
Vendors
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Switches
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⚗
Standards
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✎
News Articles
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🟢
Buy Signals
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buy_now
💰
Arbitrage Ops
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price pairs
⚠️
Supply Alerts
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critical/warning
📈
Price Gainers
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7-day movers
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Equivalences
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cross-brand
📈 Top Price Movers
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Changelog
Optical Transceiver Hype Cycle 2026 MODELL
Norton-Bass Multigenerational Diffusion Model — Adoption & Composite Score sind mathematische Schätzungen, keine echten Marktdaten — click any technology for details
Innovation Peak Trough Slope Plateau
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Technology | Phase | Position | Market Signal ● LIVE | Recommendation | OEM ASP | R²
--- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---

● LIVE = Real market data: hyperscaler capex + price activity + AI cluster demand + eBay velocity + internal demand OEM ASP = real (Mouser/Marktdaten)
Methodology: How the Hype Cycle is Calculated

This Hype Cycle uses the Norton-Bass Multigenerational Diffusion Model to calculate adoption curves for optical transceiver technologies. The model extends the classic Bass diffusion model to handle multiple generations of technology that compete and cannibalize each other.

Key Parameters:

- p (innovation coefficient) — Rate of adoption driven by external influence (marketing, industry events). Typically 0.01–0.05 for B2B networking equipment.
- q (imitation coefficient) — Rate of adoption driven by word-of-mouth and peer influence. Typically 0.3–0.5 for optical networking.
- m (market potential) — Total addressable market size, estimated from port shipment forecasts (LightCounting, Dell’Oro).
- τ (introduction time) — Year when the technology became commercially available.

Phase Classification: Technologies are classified into five phases based on their position on the adoption curve: Innovation Trigger (0–16%), Peak of Inflated Expectations (16–35%), Trough of Disillusionment (35–55%), Slope of Enlightenment (55–80%), and Plateau of Productivity (80–100%).

Composite Score: A weighted blend of adoption velocity (40%), market momentum from pricing data (30%), and ecosystem maturity from compatibility entries (30%). Score ranges from 0–100.

Data Sources: Adoption timing derived from IEEE/MSA standard ratification dates, market data from aggregated pricing across 60+ vendors, and compatibility data from 29,000+ verified switch-transceiver pairs.

Sourcing Hype Cycle 2026
Real procurement activity — price observation volume across 60+ vendors
Discovery Ramp-Up Peak Demand Mature Commodity
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Hyperscaler CapEx SEC Filings
Quarterly infrastructure spend — primary demand driver for high-speed transceivers
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eBay Secondary Market Demand Signal
Secondary market sell-through rates — real end-buyer demand by form factor
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📡 Technology Radar
Hype Cycle phases mapped to Adopt / Trial / Assess / Hold rings
Click "Render Radar" to generate the interactive technology radar.
Verified only

| Name | Vendor | Form Factor | Speed | Reach | Price (USD) | Tier | Avail. | Category | Verified
--- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---

📊 Vendor Market Intelligence (last 30 days)
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Name *
Type *
Gründungsjahr
Website
Shop URL
Headquarters
Schwerpunkt (Market Position)
Umsatz (Revenue USD)
Mitarbeiter (Employees)
Specialties (comma-separated)
Mark as direct competitor to Flexoptix
🕷 Auto-crawl wird beim Speichern gequeued — scrapers, LLM-Enrichment und Preismonitoring starten automatisch.

Standard · Beschreibung | Speed | Bauform(en) | Max Reichweite | Faser | Wellenlänge | IEEE Ref | Org · Jahr | Status | Transceiver
--- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---
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Lade Bauformen…

🖼 | Model | Vendor | Series | Category | Ports | Max Speed | Capacity | ASIC | Status
--- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---

### Switch → Transceiver Finder Find the right Flexoptix transceiver for your switch

Quick:
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AKTIV: `—` —
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claude-bridge / Erik
★ EMPFOHLEN ● AKTIV
★★★★★ Blog-Qualität
★★★★★ Geschwindigkeit
✓ Kein Mode Collapse
✓ Flat-rate (kein API-Billing)
✓ Claude Code Subscription
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CLAUDE_BRIDGE_URL=http://localhost:3250`
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🧠 claude-sonnet-4-6
Anthropic API
● AKTIV
★★★★★ Blog-Qualität
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✓ Komplexe Multi-Constraint Prompts
✓ Kein Mode Collapse
⚠ API-Kosten pro Artikel
`BLOG_LLM_PROVIDER=anthropic
ANTHROPIC_MODEL=claude-sonnet-4-6`
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🎯 fo-blog-v10
Adapter Bridge / Mac Studio
● AKTIV
★★★★★ Blog-Qualität
★★★★★ Geschwindigkeit
✓ Neu trainierte Mac Studio Version
✓ Lokal / keine API-Kosten
⚠ Qualitaet laeuft schon, Feinschliff folgt
Revision: —
Basis: —
Trainiert: —
Quantisierung: —
Trainingspaare: —
Eval-Paare: —
Parameter: —
Kontext: —
Versionen in Ollama: —
📌 PINNED
`BLOG_LLM_PROVIDER=ollama
OLLAMA_LLM_MODEL=fo-blog-v10`
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⚡ qwen2.5:14b (Fallback)
Ollama / Mac Studio
★★★★★ Blog-Qualität
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✓ Allzweck-/Fallback-Modell
✓ Keine API-Kosten
⚠ Mode Collapse bei komplexen Prompts
`BLOG_LLM_PROVIDER=ollama
OLLAMA_LLM_MODEL=qwen2.5:14b`
local model
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### Hot Topics auto-discovered from market data + conferences

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✍️ Artikel manuell generieren
Thema / Titel (optional)
Leer lassen = Thema aus Template. LLM generiert immer eine bessere Headline am Ende.
Blog-Typ
Kontext / Freitext (Hintergrundinfo — wird NIE wörtlich übernommen)
🔗 Blog aus URL generieren
Link eingeben → Inhalt wird automatisch extrahiert → BlogLLM schreibt einen Artikel daraus
URL
Blog-Typ
🔒 Paywall erkannt — PDF hochladen
Die Seite ist hinter einem Login/Paywall. Lade das Dokument als PDF hoch — der Text wird extrahiert und als Basis für den Artikel verwendet.
📎 PDF wählen Keine Datei gewählt
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Log LinkedIn engagement for a post:
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📝 Empfehlung für diesen Artikel
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DRY RUN
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🔎 Transceiver suchen — Preise, Anbieter, Verfügbarkeit & Signale
Form Factor:
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💡 Zeigt Flexoptix-Preis vs. günstigster verfügbarer Preis für das gleiche Transceiver-Äquivalent. Preise normalisiert auf USD (EUR×1.08, GBP×1.27). Nur Paare mit Preisdaten auf beiden Seiten.
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Switch-Modell eingeben um kompatible Transceiver zu sehen.
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Period:
📈 Top Gainers
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📉 Top Losers
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ℹ Reorder Signals basieren auf ABC-Klassifizierung + Preis-Observations-Frequenz. Echte Verkaufsmengendaten →
Tab.
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ℹ ABC-Klassifizierung kombiniert Preis-Observations-Frequenz, Compatibility-Einträge und Vendor-Anzahl. Echte SKU-Nachfragedaten →
Tab.

Class | Product | Form Factor | Demand Score | Compat. | Vendors | Supply Risk | Signal
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Real Flexoptix internal demand data

Velocity | SKU / Product | Form Factor | Demand 12M | Demand 3M | Trend
--- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---
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Secondary Market Demand (eBay)
Higher sell-through = real end-buyer demand, price floor signal
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🌡 Price Matrix Latest price per SKU × Vendor
Click "Load Matrix" to render the price heat map.

## 🕷 Crawler Intelligence

📦
Transceivers in DB
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💶
Price Records
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🏪
Vendors Tracked
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📰
News Articles
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🧠
KB Entries
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💾
DB Size
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✅
Active Scrapers
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🕐
Last Price Update
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### ⚡ Live Job Queue

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#### Recent (last 2h)

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### Scraper Status

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### 🔥 LLM Hot Topics

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### 📚 Knowledge Base (Learned)

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### 🔬 Data Quality & Verification Coverage

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## Selflearning Control Center

Getrennte Trainingsketten fuer TIP_LLM und Blog_LLM: Pool bauen, deduplizieren, HF syncen, lokal oder RunPod starten.
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TIP_LLM_Vx.x
Research, Crawler, Wettbewerbsdaten, Vendor-/Market-Intelligence
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FO_BlogLLM, Founder Content, technische TIP-/Flexoptix-Artikel
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Dataset: `-`
Training Log

    Noch kein Lauf in dieser Dashboard-Session.

## 🌐 TIP Proxy Network

📡
Nodes Online
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Countries
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GB Proxied Today
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Total Requests
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Join the Network

Run a node agent, donate bandwidth, get free TIP API access. Your node routes scraper traffic through your residential IP — bypassing datacenter IP bans.

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npx @tip/proxy-agent start --token YOUR_TOKEN copy
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Active Nodes

Country / City | Name | Status | Uptime | Bandwidth | Requests | Latency | Last Seen
--- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---
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## ✎ Manual Review Queue

Uncertain competitor equivalence matches — approve or reject to update ★ Fully Verified status

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## 🏭 Warehouse Stock Intelligence

Preise & Lagermengen: real (scraped from fs.com · QSFPTEK · NADDOD & more) · Abverkauf: ✅ echte Flexoptix-Verkaufszahlen (intern) · ℹ Scraper-Lagermengen: Wettbewerber-Marktdaten

📦
Total SKUs tracked
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✅
In Stock
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🇩🇪
DE-Lager Total FS.com
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🌍
Global-Lager Total FS.com
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⏳
In Nachlieferung FS.com
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🔀
Multi-Vendor SKUs
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🔥 Flexoptix Sales Velocity — Abverkauf nach Technologie REAL DATA Quelle: internes XLSX-Export · 8.585 SKUs · AES-256 verschlüsselt
✅ Echte Flexoptix-Verkaufszahlen (Bedarf/Monat) — aggregiert nach Technologie, keine einzelnen SKUs sichtbar
Total SKUs mit Bedarf
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Gesamtbedarf/Monat (12M)
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Gesamtbedarf/Monat (3M)
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Momentum (3M/12M)
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Technologie | SKUs | Bedarf/Monat (12M) ▼ | Bedarf/Monat (3M) | Momentum | Trend | Fast Movers | FS.COM DE | FS.COM Global
--- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---
Lade Flexoptix Demand-Daten…

Velocity-Klassen (gesamt 8.585 SKUs)
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📦 Demand × Live Stock Analyse — Nachbestellungsbedarf REAL DATA Interner Bedarf × Webshop-Lager (kontinuierlich)
Wird analysiert…

Part Number | Form | Bedarf/Mo (12M) | Bedarf/Mo (3M) | DE-Lager | Deckung (Tage) | Status | Trend
--- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---
Lade Analyse…

📊 Top Sellers (by units sold) SCRAPER DATA
⚠ Verkauft-Zahlen von Wettbewerbern (fs.com) — nicht Flexoptix-intern

Part Number | Form Factor | Verkauft FS.com | DE-Lager FS.com | Global-Lager FS.com | Preis (net)
--- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---
No data yet — waiting for first scrape run

🏪 Vendor Breakdown

Vendor | SKUs | In Stock | DE-Lager | Global | Backorder | Quality | Last Scraped
--- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---
No data yet

🆕 Recently Restocked (last 24h) SCRAPER DATA
No recent restock events
🔀 Multi-Vendor Price Comparison — SKUs tracked by 2+ vendors

Part Number | Form | Vendors | Min Price | Max Price | Avg Price | Vendors (low → high)
--- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---
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🔍 Lookup Stock by Part Number

## 💲 Price Comparison — Optical Transceiver Market

Live pricing across 20+ vendors · Updated every 2–8h · No authentication required

📊
SKUs Tracked
—
🏪
Active Vendors
—
📋
Price Observations
—
💵
Overall Avg Price
—
By Form Factor

Form Factor | SKUs | Vendors | Min | Avg | Max
--- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---
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Top 50 SKUs by Vendor Coverage

SKU / Standard Name | FF | Speed | Vendors | Min | Avg | Spread
--- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ---
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🔍 SKU Price Lookup

## 🔀 Cross-Brand Equivalences

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Enter a part number to find Flexoptix equivalents or competitor matches.

## 📚 Knowledge Base

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SKU Bulk Pricer
Paste part numbers (one per line or comma-separated). Returns live market prices from all vendor sources.
🎓 Transceiver Academy
Professional training for engineers, sales and procurement
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📋 RFQ Analyzer
Paste RFQ lines — one per row: `PART_NUMBER QUANTITY UNIT_PRICE`
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📊 Usage Stats by Tier
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💰 ROI & TCO Calculator
Compare your current transceiver costs against market prices. Calculate break-even and 3-year TCO savings.
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