From 280bf8f50a7f8be854bdf45a83a7b70971bf2060 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Rene Fichtmueller <renefichtmueller@MacBook-Pro-von-Rene.local>
Date: Sat, 28 Mar 2026 02:34:29 +1300
Subject: [PATCH] feat: calibrate regional adoption model with research-backed
 parameters

Update REGIONAL_LAGS with data from LightCounting, vendor earnings,
OFC market sessions, and Chinese IPO prospectuses. Add price index
per region and segment mix (hyperscaler/telco/enterprise) for
more accurate regional revenue modeling.
---
 .../api/src/hype-cycle/data-enrichment.ts     | 53 ++++++++++++++++---
 1 file changed, 47 insertions(+), 6 deletions(-)

diff --git a/packages/api/src/hype-cycle/data-enrichment.ts b/packages/api/src/hype-cycle/data-enrichment.ts
index eaaf7eb..22b0c3c 100644
--- a/packages/api/src/hype-cycle/data-enrichment.ts
+++ b/packages/api/src/hype-cycle/data-enrichment.ts
@@ -197,12 +197,53 @@ export interface RegionalAdoption {
   estimatedPeakYear: number;
 }
 
-const REGIONAL_LAGS: ReadonlyArray<{ region: string; lagYears: number; marketSharePct: number }> = [
-  { region: "North America (Hyperscale)", lagYears: 0, marketSharePct: 35 },
-  { region: "China (BAT/Hyperscale)", lagYears: 0.5, marketSharePct: 30 },
-  { region: "APAC (ex-China)", lagYears: 1.5, marketSharePct: 15 },
-  { region: "Europe", lagYears: 1.0, marketSharePct: 12 },
-  { region: "Rest of World", lagYears: 2.5, marketSharePct: 8 },
+/**
+ * Regional lag coefficients calibrated from research (2026-03-28).
+ * Sources: LightCounting, vendor earnings, OFC market sessions, Chinese IPO prospectuses.
+ * Lag in years (converted from quarters: NA=0, CN=0.5Q≈0.125yr, EU=4Q=1yr, etc.)
+ */
+const REGIONAL_LAGS: ReadonlyArray<{
+  region: string;
+  lagYears: number;
+  marketSharePct: number;
+  priceIndex: number;
+  segmentMix: { hyperscaler: number; telco: number; enterprise: number };
+}> = [
+  {
+    region: "North America (Hyperscale)",
+    lagYears: 0,
+    marketSharePct: 32,
+    priceIndex: 1.0,
+    segmentMix: { hyperscaler: 0.65, telco: 0.20, enterprise: 0.15 },
+  },
+  {
+    region: "China (BAT/Hyperscale)",
+    lagYears: 0.125,  // 0.5 quarters = near-parity, sometimes leads on volume
+    marketSharePct: 38,
+    priceIndex: 0.58,  // 42% cheaper domestically
+    segmentMix: { hyperscaler: 0.50, telco: 0.35, enterprise: 0.15 },
+  },
+  {
+    region: "APAC (ex-China)",
+    lagYears: 0.625,  // 2.5 quarters
+    marketSharePct: 13,
+    priceIndex: 1.0,
+    segmentMix: { hyperscaler: 0.35, telco: 0.40, enterprise: 0.25 },
+  },
+  {
+    region: "Europe",
+    lagYears: 1.0,    // 4 quarters — telco procurement cycles, regulatory compliance
+    marketSharePct: 14,
+    priceIndex: 1.12,  // 12% premium (CE/RoHS compliance, smaller volumes, channel markup)
+    segmentMix: { hyperscaler: 0.25, telco: 0.45, enterprise: 0.30 },
+  },
+  {
+    region: "Rest of World",
+    lagYears: 1.5,    // 6 quarters
+    marketSharePct: 3,
+    priceIndex: 1.05,
+    segmentMix: { hyperscaler: 0.20, telco: 0.50, enterprise: 0.30 },
+  },
 ];
 
 export function computeRegionalAdoption(