From b720afc92c469f62d464f02ea1de6ff4538c6f80 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Rene Fichtmueller <rf@flexoptix.net>
Date: Thu, 4 Jun 2026 20:47:30 +0000
Subject: [PATCH] feat(hype-cycle): add /market-signals endpoint (data-driven
 per-tech signal score + drivers + recommendation)

---
 packages/api/src/routes/hype-cycle.ts | 68 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++
 1 file changed, 68 insertions(+)

diff --git a/packages/api/src/routes/hype-cycle.ts b/packages/api/src/routes/hype-cycle.ts
index 567ea84..7ee68af 100644
--- a/packages/api/src/routes/hype-cycle.ts
+++ b/packages/api/src/routes/hype-cycle.ts
@@ -198,6 +198,74 @@ hypeCycleRouter.get("/analysis", async (_req: Request, res: Response) => {
 });
 
 // GET /api/hype-cycle/:tech — Specific technology detail (must be last!)
+// GET /api/hype-cycle/market-signals — data-driven per-technology market signal score + drivers + recommendation
+hypeCycleRouter.get("/market-signals", async (_req: Request, res: Response) => {
+  try {
+    const yearParam = q("year", _req);
+    const year = yearParam ? parseInt(yearParam) : new Date().getFullYear();
+    const overridesMap = await getDataDrivenOverrides();
+    const speedMetrics = await getSpeedClassMetrics();
+    const metricsBySpeed = new Map(speedMetrics.map((m) => [m.speedGbps, m]));
+    const maxSku = Math.max(1, ...speedMetrics.map((m) => m.skuCount));
+    const allTechs = [...TECH_GENERATIONS, ...SPECIAL_TECHS];
+
+    const technologies = allTechs.map((tech) => {
+      const r = computeHypeCycle(tech, year, overridesMap.get(tech.speedGbps));
+      const sm = metricsBySpeed.get(tech.speedGbps);
+      const adoption = Math.max(0, Math.round(r.adoptionPct));
+      const composite = Math.max(0, Math.round(r.compositeScore));
+      const depth = sm ? Math.round(100 * Math.min(1, sm.skuCount / maxSku)) : 0;
+      const marketSignalScore = Math.max(0, Math.min(100, Math.round(0.4 * adoption + 0.3 * composite + 0.3 * depth)));
+
+      const drivers: string[] = [];
+      drivers.push(adoption + "% modeled adoption");
+      if (sm && sm.skuCount) drivers.push(sm.skuCount + " SKUs / " + sm.vendorCount + " vendors");
+      if (sm && sm.avgPrice) drivers.push("avg $" + Math.round(sm.avgPrice));
+      drivers.push("phase: " + r.phaseLabel);
+
+      const phase = String(r.phaseLabel || "");
+      let recommendation = { label: "Monitor", detail: "Insufficient market momentum — keep watching.", color: "#94a3b8" };
+      if (/Plateau/i.test(phase)) recommendation = { label: "Commodity — negotiate", detail: "Mature, broad supply (" + (sm ? sm.vendorCount : 0) + " vendors). Push for price.", color: "#0ea5e9" };
+      else if (/Slope/i.test(phase)) recommendation = { label: "Mainstream — buy", detail: "Mainstreaming with falling prices and rising supply.", color: "#16a34a" };
+      else if (/Trough/i.test(phase)) recommendation = { label: "Maturing — opportunity", detail: "Past the hype; early mainstream pricing forming.", color: "#ca8a04" };
+      else if (/Peak/i.test(phase)) recommendation = { label: "Hype peak — caution", detail: "Elevated expectations; supply and price still volatile.", color: "#f97316" };
+      else if (/Innovation|Trigger/i.test(phase)) recommendation = { label: "Emerging — pilot", detail: "Early window; limited supply, premium pricing.", color: "#ca8a04" };
+
+      return {
+        technology: tech.name,
+        phase: r.phaseLabel,
+        marketSignalScore,
+        adoptionPct: adoption,
+        compositeScore: composite,
+        skuCount: sm ? sm.skuCount : 0,
+        vendorCount: sm ? sm.vendorCount : 0,
+        avgPrice: sm && sm.avgPrice ? Math.round(sm.avgPrice * 100) / 100 : null,
+        drivers,
+        recommendation,
+      };
+    });
+
+    technologies.sort((a, b) => b.marketSignalScore - a.marketSignalScore);
+
+    const totalSkus = speedMetrics.reduce((acc, m) => acc + m.skuCount, 0);
+    const totalVendors = speedMetrics.length ? Math.max(...speedMetrics.map((m) => m.vendorCount)) : 0;
+    const avgSignal = technologies.length ? Math.round(technologies.reduce((acc, t) => acc + t.marketSignalScore, 0) / technologies.length) : 0;
+    const globalContext = {
+      totalSkus,
+      totalVendors,
+      avgMarketSignal: avgSignal,
+      strongest: technologies.length ? technologies[0].technology : null,
+      strongestScore: technologies.length ? technologies[0].marketSignalScore : null,
+      generatedAt: new Date().toISOString(),
+    };
+
+    res.json({ success: true, year, technologies, globalContext });
+  } catch (err) {
+    console.error("market-signals error:", err);
+    res.status(500).json({ success: false, error: "Failed to compute market signals" });
+  }
+});
+
 hypeCycleRouter.get("/:tech", (req: Request, res: Response) => {
   const techQuery = String(req.params.tech);
   const yearParam = q("year", req);