Rene Fichtmueller
280bf8f50a
feat: calibrate regional adoption model with research-backed parameters
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Update REGIONAL_LAGS with data from LightCounting, vendor earnings,
OFC market sessions, and Chinese IPO prospectuses. Add price index
per region and segment mix (hyperscaler/telco/enterprise) for
more accurate regional revenue modeling.
2026-03-28 02:34:29 +13:00
Rene Fichtmueller
70447def02
feat: massive scraper expansion + hype cycle engine + lifecycle prediction
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New scrapers:
- GBICS.com (BigCommerce, GBP prices, 10 categories, 78 products)
- Juniper HCT (Next.js SSR parser, 475 transceivers with specs/EOL)
- SFPcables.com (Magento store, 16 categories, 78 products)
- Fluxlight (BigCommerce, 6 pages, 118 products)
- Champion ONE (compatible vendor scraper)
Scraper fixes:
- 10Gtek: rewritten to parse HTML spec tables (152 products)
- Flexoptix: fix price extraction from Magento Hyva HTML
- Register all scrapers in CLI (--gbics, --juniper, --sfpcables, etc.)
Hype Cycle Engine enhancements:
- Data-driven enrichment from scraped vendor/price data
- Revenue lifecycle prediction (peak year, decline, revenue index)
- Regional adoption model (NA, China, APAC, Europe, RoW with lag coefficients)
- New API endpoints: /enriched, /lifecycle, /regional/:tech
DB growth: 89 → 1,168 transceivers, 0 → 416 prices, 6 vendors
Qdrant: 1,162 products embedded with nomic-embed-text
Research: Norton-Bass model, standards-to-market timelines, hype signals
2026-03-28 02:30:19 +13:00
Rene Fichtmueller
eb875f37d2
feat: Phase 3 — Norton-Bass Hype Cycle Engine
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Implements the full Norton-Bass Multigenerational Diffusion Model for
transceiver technology lifecycle forecasting.
Math: Bass diffusion F(t) + logistic adoption S(t) = L / (1 + e^(-k(t-t0)))
Parameters: p (innovation ~0.03), q (imitation ~0.3-0.5), m (market potential)
Phase Classification Engine (composite score):
30% Port shipment share + 20% ASP decline rate + 15% Standards maturity
+ 15% Interop validation + 10% Vendor trajectory + 10% Media sentiment
11 technologies tracked: 1G → 10G → 25G → 40G → 100G → 400G → 800G → 1.6T
+ CPO, LPO, 400ZR Coherent
5-year adoption forecast per technology
API: GET /api/hype-cycle (all) + GET /api/hype-cycle/:tech (detail)
Live: https://transceiver-db.context-x.org/api/hype-cycle
2026-03-27 23:35:57 +13:00
