Rene Fichtmueller
a6f7968393
feat: Phase 3 — Norton-Bass Hype Cycle Engine
Implements the full Norton-Bass Multigenerational Diffusion Model for
transceiver technology lifecycle forecasting.
Math: Bass diffusion F(t) + logistic adoption S(t) = L / (1 + e^(-k(t-t0)))
Parameters: p (innovation ~0.03), q (imitation ~0.3-0.5), m (market potential)
Phase Classification Engine (composite score):
30% Port shipment share + 20% ASP decline rate + 15% Standards maturity
+ 15% Interop validation + 10% Vendor trajectory + 10% Media sentiment
11 technologies tracked: 1G → 10G → 25G → 40G → 100G → 400G → 800G → 1.6T
+ CPO, LPO, 400ZR Coherent
5-year adoption forecast per technology
API: GET /api/hype-cycle (all) + GET /api/hype-cycle/:tech (detail)
Live: https://transceiver-db.context-x.org/api/hype-cycle