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feat: calibrate regional adoption model with research-backed parameters

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Update REGIONAL_LAGS with data from LightCounting, vendor earnings,
OFC market sessions, and Chinese IPO prospectuses. Add price index
per region and segment mix (hyperscaler/telco/enterprise) for
more accurate regional revenue modeling.
This commit is contained in:
Rene Fichtmueller 2026-03-28 02:34:29 +13:00
parent 70447def02
commit 280bf8f50a
1 changed files with 47 additions and 6 deletions
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53
packages/api/src/hype-cycle/data-enrichment.ts
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@ -197,12 +197,53 @@ export interface RegionalAdoption {
estimatedPeakYear: number;
}
const REGIONAL_LAGS: ReadonlyArray<{ region: string; lagYears: number; marketSharePct: number }> = [
{ region: "North America (Hyperscale)", lagYears: 0, marketSharePct: 35 },
{ region: "China (BAT/Hyperscale)", lagYears: 0.5, marketSharePct: 30 },
{ region: "APAC (ex-China)", lagYears: 1.5, marketSharePct: 15 },
{ region: "Europe", lagYears: 1.0, marketSharePct: 12 },
{ region: "Rest of World", lagYears: 2.5, marketSharePct: 8 },
/**
* Regional lag coefficients calibrated from research (2026-03-28).
* Sources: LightCounting, vendor earnings, OFC market sessions, Chinese IPO prospectuses.
* Lag in years (converted from quarters: NA=0, CN=0.5Q≈0.125yr, EU=4Q=1yr, etc.)
*/
const REGIONAL_LAGS: ReadonlyArray<{
region: string;
lagYears: number;
marketSharePct: number;
priceIndex: number;
segmentMix: { hyperscaler: number; telco: number; enterprise: number };
}> = [
{
region: "North America (Hyperscale)",
lagYears: 0,
marketSharePct: 32,
priceIndex: 1.0,
segmentMix: { hyperscaler: 0.65, telco: 0.20, enterprise: 0.15 },
},
{
region: "China (BAT/Hyperscale)",
lagYears: 0.125, // 0.5 quarters = near-parity, sometimes leads on volume
marketSharePct: 38,
priceIndex: 0.58, // 42% cheaper domestically
segmentMix: { hyperscaler: 0.50, telco: 0.35, enterprise: 0.15 },
},
{
region: "APAC (ex-China)",
lagYears: 0.625, // 2.5 quarters
marketSharePct: 13,
priceIndex: 1.0,
segmentMix: { hyperscaler: 0.35, telco: 0.40, enterprise: 0.25 },
},
{
region: "Europe",
lagYears: 1.0, // 4 quarters — telco procurement cycles, regulatory compliance
marketSharePct: 14,
priceIndex: 1.12, // 12% premium (CE/RoHS compliance, smaller volumes, channel markup)
segmentMix: { hyperscaler: 0.25, telco: 0.45, enterprise: 0.30 },
},
{
region: "Rest of World",
lagYears: 1.5, // 6 quarters
marketSharePct: 3,
priceIndex: 1.05,
segmentMix: { hyperscaler: 0.20, telco: 0.50, enterprise: 0.30 },
},
];
export function computeRegionalAdoption(